The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is facing a critical decision regarding the approval of 12 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Bloomberg ETF experts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have identified a specific window of opportunity for these approvals, spanning from November 9 to November 17. This time frame marks a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency market, as the SEC could potentially give the green light to all 12 applications during this period.
One of the driving factors behind this opportunity is Grayscale’s recent legal victory, which paved the way for the conversion of its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF. Since this victory, Grayscale has been actively engaging with the SEC, holding discussions with both the Division of Trading and Markets and the Division of Corporation Finance. These conversations signify Grayscale’s intent to transition from a trust product to an ETF, a move that could further boost the cryptocurrency market.
SEC’s Recent “Delay Order” and Deadline Extensions
In a notable development, on November 8th, James Seyffart announced that the SEC issued a “delay order” simultaneously affecting prominent players in the cryptocurrency ETF space, including BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie. This order has added intrigue to the approval process.
While the original deadline for the SEC to accept all 12 ETF petitions is November 17, Seyffart points out that the agency still has until January 10, 2024, to make a final ruling on nine of the applications. This extended timeline reflects the complexity and significance of the decision at hand.
High Expectations for ETF Approval
There is no assurance that a spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved, but both Seyffart and Balchunas believe that it has a 90% probability of being approved by January 10, 2024. This optimism is fueled by the growing interest in cryptocurrencies and the potential benefits of ETFs, which could make it easier for institutional and retail investors to access Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s price has surged by more than 30% in the last three months, largely due to the anticipation of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) receiving approval. Many industry insiders believe that the approval of these ETFs could trigger the next bull market in the cryptocurrency space. The substantial increase in Bitcoin’s value has also led to heightened trading activity across various cryptocurrency exchanges.
